Winter 2024 Update - Bring Them Home Now!
Updated: Jul 27
Up until recently, the Six Day War was the only war that caught me outside of Israel. I was just a child in Bologna, Italy, back then. I remember it because an Italian friend of my parents gave me a plastic soldier's helmet to cheer me up. I vividly remember my disappointment when my mother promptly took it away after he left, reminiscent of that Pulp Fiction scene where Christopher Walken hands a wristwatch to young Butsch…
I was abroad once again when this war started. Despite my immediate attempts to fly back to Israel, I faced massive flight cancellations, non-functioning service centers, and Israeli crowds flooding the airports. I ended up flying to Jordan and was accompanied by Jordanian security to the border with other Israelis, in a scene that was reminiscent of the Yom Kippur war. The Jordanians were very nice.
Israel, once viewing itself as a global power, now finds itself unprepared and careless in the eyes of the world, termed the "Israeli 9/11" in the US. But the recent events on October 7th were accompanied by barbaric acts of cruelty attributed to "Palestinian heroes" and directed at babies and teenage girls. The world media swiftly streamed images of destruction in Gaza without acknowledging that Hamas, a cruel terrorist organization, deliberately hides among civilians, using them as human shields.
Communication challenges persist for Israel, exacerbated by a lack of English articulacy. While some individuals like Noa Tishby or Eylon Levy shine, many spokespeople and ambassadors appear inarticulate, tedious and incoherent. This is not surprisingly when you consider that they were appointed more for party interests and flattery than for their communication skills. But the USA, too, faces criticism in the realm of propaganda, especially when combating terrorist regimes abroad. The key difference lies in the USA's ability to ignore the rest of the world, while Israel lacks the veto power in the UN Security Council.
Shifting focus to professional matters.
23 unit property:
Similar refinancing strategies were applied to the French Quarter property, located in the desirable Buckhead area of Atlanta. This financial maneuver allows us to patiently wait for increased occupancy in a property that was initially acquired vacant.
Real Estate in the US:
As winter sets in, the US real estate market remains cold. A decade of prosperity marked by price hikes, interest rate cuts, and increased demand has given way to a correction phase. The recent interest rate cuts by the Fed inject vitality, but we anticipate continued challenges in the current market cycle.
Navigating the real estate world feels like a game of cycles, akin to the ebb and flow of life's challenges. Those with minimal cash and substantial loans may thrive in favorable markets but face bankruptcy in downturns. In contrast, equity-focused entrepreneurs weather storms more adeptly. Luck, while a factor, is a rarity in real estate success stories.
The decline in construction starts in 2022 and 2023 is a response to rising interest rates, making mortgages and short-term loans expensive. The subsequent reduction in housing starts signals an impending housing shortage, marking the end of a cycle.
The same goes for the Multi Family sector where an increasing Multi Family Housing Starts is seen at the end of year.
Building permits in the United States rose by 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.498 million in October 2023.
We can see the steady decline in mortgage originations in 2022-2023 and a beginning of recovery at the end of the year.
The previous surge in rents, especially in the South, is now met with pressures to lower rents, resulting in our case in Atlanta, to concessions of up to a month's rent which reflects a decrease of 8.3% in income. Cooling rents should keep putting downward pressure on inflation next year and is one of the reasons for the FED's lower inflation prediction.
The substantial interest rate hike has left the real estate industry reeling. Financial strength distinguishes those navigating the current environment from those constrained by high LTV financing.
Private house prices have experienced a decline of approximately 10% since 2022. It is not good, but it is not a crisis, and in fact, it is an indication that the demand for single family homes may return fast.
The office and retail sectors face greater challenges, with office vacancy estimated at 17.80% nationwide. Unless a deal presents a significant upside, caution is advised in dealing with office spaces, given the complexities and expenses associated with conversion. Converting office space to residential sounds good on paper but doesn't always make sense. It’s an expensive project. The infrastructure is completely different. Different public and private space proportions, structure and insulation, feed and sewage piping, wiring and electrical, air conditioning, etc. It may be reasonable only in expensive metropolitan areas like London.
In conclusion, the US real estate market is in a reset, heralding positive developments.
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
This publication is personal and not for general circulation. It does not form part of any offer or recommendation. It does not take into consideration investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person. Prior to committing to an investment, please seek advice from a licensed professional regarding the suitability of the product for you and read the relevant product offer documents, including the risk disclosures, If you do not wish to seek financial advice, please consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you.
Dạo này mình gần như ngày nào cũng mở soi cầu XSMB với soi cầu MB trước giờ quay, kiểu làm cho quen tay để nắm tình hình nhanh. Mình cũng hay xem thêm mấy mục dự đoán, thống kê lô gan và lô xiên rồi tự ghi chú lại xem có bộ nào đang chạy đều không. Trong nhóm có người bảo theo dõi dự đoán xổ số miền bắc sẽ dễ hơn nếu kết hợp cả quay thử XSMB, Rồng Bạch Kim với dữ liệu lịch sử để đối chiếu tần suất cho đỡ lệch. Mình thấy cũng hợp lý, chứ chỉ trông chờ hên xui thì dễ bị cảm tính lắm, nên mình hay nhìn thêm cầu…
Mình chơi xổ số kiểu cho vui là chính, coi như một trò giải trí sau giờ làm nên cũng không đặt nặng chuyện phải trúng lớn. Trước đây nghe người ta bàn tán về “cầu” nọ “cầu” kia, mình cũng thử để ý xem có gì hay ho không. Theo dõi một thời gian thì thấy đôi lúc có vài dạng lặp lại nhìn khá quen mắt, nhưng mình chỉ xem như gợi ý tham khảo chứ không coi là chắc chắn. Thỉnh thoảng mình đọc mấy bài nhận định rồi ghi lại vài ý ngắn, sau đó đối chiếu lại để tự kiểm tra xem mình có bị cảm tính không. Có bữa trúng chút thì vui, bữa…